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Wall Street’s view of the health plan industry and individual health insurers affects not only public companies' stock prices — but also the fortunes of not-for-profit and privately owned insurers. For them, the financial community's view impacts everything from borrowing costs for capital expenditures to the ability to consummate mergers and acquisitions. Wall Street also is a keen observer of the key operating measures and pricing trends in the industry ... and what they will mean for future earnings results and diversification moves.

Learn how pending deals like UnitedHealth’s purchase of Sierra and CIGNA’s Great-West buy are likely to affect the competitive landscape in key markets — and what market segments and companies are likely to see mergers and acquisitions in 2008. Will the investigation that torpedoed WellCare’s stock affect other Medicaid and Medicare health insurers? These and numerous other 2007 news events in the industry could have a big impact on prices and profits in 2008.

Financial analysts expect health plan performance to vary substantially in 2008.  Some health plans are better positioned to leverage low administrative costs and deep provider discounts into stronger earnings, while others are poised to grow through innovative new products and capabilities.

Hear three top health industry securities and financial analysts discuss:

• Which health insurers figure to outperform the others in 2008, and why?
• What is the 2008 outlook for M&A in the health plan industry?  Which market segments should see the most action? Who are likely acquirers and acquisition targets?
• How aggressive should health plans be in boosting premiums to keep ahead of medical cost trends?
• How does Wall Street judge the success of a health insurer’s rollout into a new market, and the impact of that success or failure?
• What is the right approach, in Wall Street's view, to pursuing enrollment growth? What is the “perfect” blend of organic growth and growth via outside deals?
• What federal government actions — including changes in payments to MA plans — are likely to affect health plans in 2008, and how?
• What states will be next to adopt coverage reform laws in 2008? Which states might overhaul Medicaid programs?

Speakers

CARL McDONALD is an executive director and senior analyst covering the managed care industry at CIBC World Markets. Before joining CIBC in February 2005, he followed the same industry for Morgan Stanley, Banc of America Securities, and Credit Suisse First Boston. Mr. McDonald was named the No. 3 analyst in managed care in Alpha Magazine’s ranking of top analysts by hedge funds in 2007, and he was honored as the No. 2 earnings estimator in the country by Forbes/Starmine in 2006. He was cited as the Up and Coming managed care analyst in Institutional Investor's 2005 and 2006 All-America Research survey. Mr. McDonald holds a B.A. in economics and B.A. in American studies from Brandeis University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst and member of the Boston Society of Security Analysts.

BRIAN WRIGHT is a vice president and senior analyst covering the managed care industry at Jefferies & Company, Inc.  Before joining Jefferies in June 2006, he followed the same industry and the property and casualty insurance industry for Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. beginning in June 2000. Mr. Wright holds a B.S.B.A. in finance and economics from Rockhurst University and an M.B.A. in finance from Indiana University.

SHELLIE STODDARD is a director in Corporate & Government Services at Standard & Poor's in New York City. As a segment specialist in insurance ratings, she follows the health insurance and managed care industry, and is active in the preparation of industry outlooks and other commentary. Ms. Stoddard is the primary analyst for some of the largest managed care companies. Prior to joining Standard & Poor's in 1998, Ms. Stoddard was with A.M. Best Company, where she performed similar rating analyses on health insurance and managed care organizations. She holds a B.A. in economics and math from Colby College and an M.B.A. in finance from New York University's Graduate School of Business.

Moderator: B.J. Taylor, associate editor of AIS's Medicare Advantage News.

Designed Especially For

• Health plan CEOs, chief operating officers, CFOs, directors of investor relations, actuaries, attorneys, product developers, market research analysts, marketing executives and government affairs directors.
• Financial analysts, including securities and credit analysts.
• Executives at investment-banking, venture-capital and private-equity firms
• Consultants

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Written Materials